Skip to main content

Top Ten Science and Technology Predictions for the 2010's

Looking at Science and Technology over the next year is one thing, but its far more fun and far easier to make wild guesses that cover the next decade!
  1. There will be at least one machine capable of carrying out a phone conversation that passes the Turing test. This is bigger than it sounds, because you can fail the Turing test and still be smarter than a lot of people, these days. The end of the decade will likely see annoyingly friendly automated phone services and websites, first as terribly novelties and slowly as useful, subtle additions to our user interfaces. When you click the wrong thing in Firefox and mutter, "Ugh, not that!" and it corrects it for you, you'll finally stop finding it annoying.

  2. Automated photo and video manipulation is going to get weirdly good. I mean, this stuff is going to creep you out. People will delete their ex from entire collections of videos and photos without a trace, like they never existed (not a bad thing). Weird, is inserting people into photos and videos. What takes a skilled artist to craft with stock, original media, and a wacom table today, we'll have it toy web apps in a few years. The technology is already here, and it only needs to improve and become more accessible. Both are inevitable.

  3. Combinations of nano-materials and solar cell advancements are going to make cheap, compact water filtration devices cheap enough to mass produce and distribute among the third world. Clean water will stop being something requiring a civil infrastructure to provide, and become something that requires only a cheap, donated pump with an integrated filter.

  4. Between eye and head tracking cameras and ever cheaper display technologies, billboards are going to start preaching to us. Literally.

  5. Broadband won't be an option.

  6. Rosie is going to be in our houses. Dyson is revolutionizing vacuums and doing equally impressive things all over the board. I expect to see combination vacuum/sampoo units within five years and to see them self-propelled and operating within the decade. They'll part in a charging unit with a drainage hookup near you washer and drier and clean while you're at work.

  7. Recycling is going to become digestion. Our garbage is already a huge problem and tiny solutions are going to start making inroads. Custom bred bacterial strains, nano-materials to filter and break down petrochemicals and other difficult materials, and plasma generation facilities are going to combine to get a bigger buck for our garbage. Hopefully this will mean we can stop paying them for the gold they haul away from our homes.

  8. Google (and other search engines, if anyone catches up) is already working on the natural questions being queried, like "What is Mel Gibson's top grossing movie?" It's only a matter of time before the next generation, seeing those questions get results, responds with even more natural queries right after it, "No, I meant the other guy." and the engines are going to have to follow the queries and start having conversations about what we're looking for. Context is going to be key and the context is going to be broad and personal.

  9. We'll still be using HTML and Javascript.

  10. We'll hit a roadblock on storage capacity, but it will have been driven so far down in cost and size that the paradigm will completely shift. We'll shift away from a monolithic storage units and into storage pools. We'll replace machines with a large drive or an array with a multitude of microstorage units (micro in size, storing petabyte or more each). We'll add "bits" to the pools when we need more space and toss out defunct hardware, if they aren't extremely reliable and long lasting. The storage will be replicated and spread out over the collection, much like a local distributed storage network. The same technology will scale between machines and locations.

Comments

Martin said…
Point 1 will properly be true.

But will it be because of software getting smarter or people getting dumber?

Popular posts from this blog

CARDIAC: The Cardboard Computer

I am just so excited about this. CARDIAC. The Cardboard Computer. How cool is that? This piece of history is amazing and better than that: it is extremely accessible. This fantastic design was built in 1969 by David Hagelbarger at Bell Labs to explain what computers were to those who would otherwise have no exposure to them. Miraculously, the CARDIAC (CARDboard Interactive Aid to Computation) was able to actually function as a slow and rudimentary computer.  One of the most fascinating aspects of this gem is that at the time of its publication the scope it was able to demonstrate was actually useful in explaining what a computer was. Could you imagine trying to explain computers today with anything close to the CARDIAC? It had 100 memory locations and only ten instructions. The memory held signed 3-digit numbers (-999 through 999) and instructions could be encoded such that the first digit was the instruction and the second two digits were the address of memory to operat...

Statement Functions

At a small suggestion in #python, I wrote up a simple module that allows the use of many python statements in places requiring statements. This post serves as the announcement and documentation. You can find the release here . The pattern is the statement's keyword appended with a single underscore, so the first, of course, is print_. The example writes 'some+text' to an IOString for a URL query string. This mostly follows what it seems the print function will be in py3k. print_("some", "text", outfile=query_iostring, sep="+", end="") An obvious second choice was to wrap if statements. They take a condition value, and expect a truth value or callback an an optional else value or callback. Values and callbacks are named if_true, cb_true, if_false, and cb_false. if_(raw_input("Continue?")=="Y", cb_true=play_game, cb_false=quit) Of course, often your else might be an error case, so raising an exception could be useful...

How To Teach Software Development

How To Teach Software Development Introduction Developers Quality Control Motivation Execution Businesses Students Schools Education is broken. Education about software development is even more broken. It is a sad observation of the industry from my eyes. I come to see good developers from what should be great educations as survivors, more than anything. Do they get a headstart from their education or do they overcome it? This is the first part in a series on software education. I want to open a discussion here. Please comment if you have thoughts. Blog about it, yourself. Write about how you disagree with me. Write more if you don't. We have a troubled industry. We care enough to do something about it. We hark on the bad developers the way people used to point at freak shows, but we only hurt ourselves but not improving the situation. We have to deal with their bad code. We are the twenty percent and we can't talk to the eighty percent, by definition, so we need to impro...